Can Air Force Football Make ESPN's Top 25 Rankings This Season?
As I sit down to analyze Air Force's football prospects this season, I can't help but reflect on how much the landscape of college football has changed since my days covering the Mountain West Conference. The question on everyone's mind - whether Air Force can crack ESPN's Top 25 this season - reminds me of those tense preseason discussions we used to have in press boxes across the country. There's something special about service academy football that always captures my imagination, and this year's Falcons squad might just have what it takes to make some serious noise.
Looking at their schedule, I'm particularly excited about their September 14th matchup against Baylor. The Bears went 3-9 last season, but here's the thing - Air Force has historically performed well against Power Five opponents when they're perceived as underdogs. I remember watching them nearly upset Michigan in 2017, losing 29-13 but showing incredible defensive discipline that kept them in the game far longer than anyone expected. This year's team returns 15 starters, including quarterback Zac Larrier, who completed 63.2% of his passes last season while throwing only 4 interceptions. Those numbers might not jump off the page, but in Air Force's triple-option system, they're exactly what you need to control the clock and keep opponents off balance.
The social media buzz around various sports programs lately got me thinking about team chemistry. You might have seen those viral posts about players making strong statements about coaching changes in other sports - it highlights how crucial the coach-player relationship really is. For Air Force, the continuity with head coach Troy Calhoun entering his 18th season provides a stability that many ranked programs would envy. I've always believed that September performance dictates how voters perceive service academies throughout the season. If they can start 4-0, which is absolutely possible given their relatively soft opening schedule, we could be looking at a perfect storm of circumstances that propels them into the rankings.
Their defensive front seven looks particularly impressive this year. Nose guard Peyton Zdroik recorded 7.5 sacks last season, and linebacker Alec Mock led the team with 112 tackles. Those aren't just good numbers - they're elite-level production that would stand out in any conference. What really excites me though is their secondary, which returns three starters from a unit that held opponents to just 195.3 passing yards per game. In today's pass-happy college football landscape, that kind of defensive backfield is worth its weight in gold.
Now, let's talk about the Air Force offense, which averaged 28.7 points per game last season. The triple option isn't for everyone - I've heard critics call it outdated - but when executed properly, it's brutally effective. They rushed for 3,214 yards as a team last year, with their fullbacks alone combining for over 1,200 yards. That kind of ground dominance wears opponents down physically and mentally. I've watched teams in the fourth quarter just look defeated, knowing they have to face another eight-play, six-minute drive that chews up the clock and their will to compete.
The Mountain West Conference looks more competitive than ever this year, with Boise State and Fresno State both receiving preseason attention. But here's my take - Air Force's 28-31 record against ranked opponents historically actually works in their favor when they're the ones seeking ranking. Voters respect the difficulty of their schedule and the unique challenges they face as a service academy. Their October 26th game against Army could be particularly telling - the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy often serves as a measuring stick for how the academies stack up nationally.
I've been covering college football for over fifteen years, and I can tell you that the difference between being ranked 25th and unranked often comes down to narrative as much as performance. Air Force has that compelling story - the disciplined cadet-athletes, the patriotic appeal, the unique offensive system. When they're winning, they become a feel-good story that voters want to include. Their graduation rate of 89% - one of the highest in FBS football - doesn't hurt their case either when compared to other programs flirting with the bottom of the rankings.
The biggest challenge will be overcoming their 51-52 record against current Mountain West opponents. That's the statistic that gives me pause. But looking at their roster depth and experience this year, I believe they're better positioned than any Air Force team since the 1998 squad that finished ranked 24th in the final AP Poll. Their offensive line averages 298 pounds across the starting five - not massive by Power Five standards, but perfectly sized for their cut-blocking scheme that has frustrated defensive coordinators for years.
As we approach the season, I'm putting Air Force at about a 40% chance to appear in the Top 25 at some point this year. They'll need some help from other teams losing, and they absolutely must win those key conference games against Boise State and UNLV. But having watched this program develop over the past decade, I can confidently say this might be their best shot at national recognition in recent memory. The combination of experienced leadership, defensive prowess, and favorable scheduling creates the perfect opportunity for the Falcons to soar into the rankings and capture the nation's attention.