Can USF Basketball Make the NCAA Tournament This Season?

The question on every USF Bulls fan's mind as the season heats up is a tantalizing one: can this men's basketball team finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament? It’s a conversation that carries both the weight of history and a palpable, fresh optimism. I’ve followed this program for years, through the lean stretches and the near-misses, and I have to say, this year feels different. There’s a vibe around the team that reminds me of what makes college basketball so special—a blend of veteran leadership and that raw, hungry desire to prove something on the biggest stage. It’s not just about having talent; it’s about having the right kind of talent, the kind that’s wholly invested in the jersey they’re wearing. That’s a lesson we can see echoed in stories from other programs, like the compelling case of Nic Cabanero at University of Santo Tomas. Reaching the Final Four for the first time in his career, Cabanero couldn’t wait to run it back again with his team, so much so that he shunned talks on his potential future elsewhere. That level of commitment, that decision to build on a breakthrough moment with the same group, is the exact intangible ingredient USF needs to replicate.

Looking at the roster, the foundation is undeniably solid. We have a core of experienced players who’ve been through the battles of the American Athletic Conference. They know the grind, they’ve felt the sting of close losses that kept them out of the bubble conversation last season—I’d argue they were probably two or three possessions away from a very different narrative. This year, the key will be turning those 50-50 games into wins. The analytics sites currently project USF to finish around 4th in the AAC, which historically has been a multi-bid league, though its strength can fluctuate. For me, the critical benchmark is the non-conference schedule. They absolutely must secure at least one, if not two, Quad 1 wins there. A strong showing, say going 10-3 or 11-2 in that stretch, would provide a crucial resume cushion before the conference gauntlet begins. It’s about building a resume the selection committee can’t ignore, and that starts in November and December.

Now, let’s talk about that Cabanero parallel, because I think it’s more than just a nice story. It speaks to the chemistry and belief within a program. USF doesn’t have a roster full of one-and-done prospects looking at the NBA Draft; they have guys who have chosen to be here, to grow together. That continuity is a massive advantage in today’s transfer-portal era. When players buy into a system and each other, they execute better under pressure. They trust the pass in a crucial moment. They fight for every loose ball because it means something to the guy next to them. This Bulls team seems to have cultivated that. You can see it in their defensive intensity, which has improved markedly; they’re holding opponents to under 68 points per game on average, a figure that would have placed them in the top 40 nationally last season. That’s the identity of a tournament team—a gritty, hard-nosed defense that travels well and keeps you in games on off-shooting nights.

Of course, the path is fraught with challenges. The AAC is tough, with Florida Atlantic, Memphis, and Charlotte all presenting formidable hurdles. The margin for error is slim. A bad loss to a lower-tier conference opponent can be a resume killer. They’ll need to protect home court fiercely—I’d estimate they need to win at least 85% of their games at the Yuengling Center—and steal a few on the road. The health of their key players is paramount; an injury to a primary scorer or their point guard could derail everything. And then there’s the mental hurdle. This program hasn’t danced since 2012. That’s a long time. There’s a psychological barrier to breaking a drought like that, a moment in tight games where doubt can creep in. The coaching staff’s job is to ensure this team plays free and confident, not tight and burdened by history.

So, can they do it? My cautiously optimistic answer is yes, but with clear conditions. They have the pieces: the veteran guards, the improving interior presence, and what appears to be the right collective mentality. The schedule provides opportunities. It will come down to winning those pivotal swing games, avoiding catastrophic losses, and perhaps getting a little luck with the bounce of the ball in March. The story of Nic Cabanero choosing to run it back with UST after a Final Four run is a powerful reminder that the heart of college sports isn’t just about reaching the pinnacle once; it’s about the shared journey to get back there and go even further. That’s the spirit USF must embody. If they can harness that belief, if they can play with the cohesion of a team that knows this is their best and perhaps only chance together, then I believe we’ll be seeing the Bulls’ name called on Selection Sunday. It won’t be easy—it never is—but the opportunity is squarely in front of them. And as a fan, that’s all you can really ask for.